“Prices are expected to remain firm due to the delay in new crop arrivals,” Velagapudi said. He added that dry chilli stocks in cold storages are estimated at around 1.5 crore bags—roughly the same as last year—while this year’s crop is running over a month late, with fresh arrivals likely only around January 20.

Over the past two months, prices of local consumption varieties such as 5531, 341 and 334 have risen by about ₹30 per kg. In contrast, the Teja variety has gained only around ₹10 per kg because of weaker export demand, Velagapudi noted.

China, India’s largest chilli buyer, has already stepped up purchases. “China has bought about 5,000 containers more than last year. They are well stocked now and not keen to buy further. As a result, the Teja variety isn’t performing well,” Velagapudi said.

According to Spices Board data, India’s red chilli production for 2024–25 fell to 26.93 lakh tonnes from 9.21 lakh hectares, compared with 29.09 lakh tonnes from 9.65 lakh hectares the previous year.