Dry chilli prices in 2026 are expected to rise sharply due to a mix of low production, poor yields, and strong demand from both domestic and export markets. Compared to 2024 and 2025, overall chilli production in 2026 is estimated to be less than 55%, creating a serious supply gap ⚠️. Yield per acre has fallen from an average of 30–35 quintals to just 10–15 quintals due to heavy rains 🌧️, pest attacks like black and red thrips 🐛, and fungal and bacterial diseases 🦠.

Green chilli prices at the farmer level are already high, ranging between ₹25 and ₹40 per kg, clearly showing tight supply and strong demand 💹. Arrivals from Karnataka to Andhra Pradesh markets have dropped to less than 20% of normal levels 🚚⬇️. Lower sowing, reduced yields, and higher prices offered by MNC buyers in Karnataka have further limited market arrivals 🏭💰.

On the demand side, chilli powder companies have almost exhausted their old stocks 📦❌ and are now urgently buying fresh crop 🌾. In addition, North India has faced up to 80% crop failure ❌🌱, reducing national supply. Export demand 🌍 continues, adding more pressure. All these factors together strongly indicate a significant rise in dry chilli prices in 2026 📈🔥.