The chilli market has moved beyond earlier expectations, and the most sensitive variety at present is 5531. This variety is now the backbone of current trade discussions across Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.

⚠️ Severe Crop Shortage in AP & Karnataka

The 5531 crop is significantly lower this season. In major belts like Ballari, production is only around 25% compared to last year. Pest pressure, virus incidence, and uneven weather conditions have sharply reduced yields. Many farmers report thinner pods and lower overall output per acre.

📉 Arrivals Not Matching Demand

Market arrivals are limited, and stocks in traders’ hands are not comfortable. Buyers are actively searching, but consistent supply is missing. This imbalance is creating strong upward pressure in the open market.

🏭 Powder Companies Actively Buying

Powder companies are currently understocked and depending heavily on market arrivals. Quality 5531 lots are receiving immediate attention. If bulk buying starts, prices can rise quickly due to tight availability.

📈 ₹300 Level Possible in Open Market

If arrivals remain weak and demand continues, prices touching ₹300 in the coming days would not be a surprise. Market sentiment remains firm.

🌾 Field Sale Range – Important Highlight

However, if the crop is sold directly from the field instead of bringing it to the market yard, the current 5531 field-level range is between ₹220 to ₹250, depending on quality and moisture.

Large-scale field selling at this range could temporarily control the upward movement in the market.

👀 All Eyes on Guntur & Karnataka

Guntur arrivals and Karnataka supply will decide the next direction. Any sudden drop in arrivals can push rates sharply upward, while increased field selling may stabilize prices.

⚖️ Note: Market conditions can change based on arrivals 🚛, export orders 🌍, and government policy decisions 🏛️. Traders and farmers should monitor daily market updates before making buying or selling decisions.